tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-279146381231845671.post8015361075254244884..comments2023-08-16T04:32:23.376-07:00Comments on Bad Outcomes: Did Shiller Predict the Burst of the Tech Bubble?Robert H.http://www.blogger.com/profile/09454933755396275755noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-279146381231845671.post-90686023421552514812014-02-25T19:16:52.383-08:002014-02-25T19:16:52.383-08:00Good point !Good point !linnahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10310409326856238520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-279146381231845671.post-84855326642547920192014-02-20T07:40:46.081-08:002014-02-20T07:40:46.081-08:00Taleb is not a good example, because he doesn'...Taleb is not a good example, because he doesn't really offer up predictions. His big idea is just that the market makes large moves more than you think. In that form it isn't really a testable hypothesis, and even transforming it to something testable, it won't be a moment in time prediction.<br /><br />John Paulson, star of Michael Lewis's, The Big Short definitely called the housing collapse. He made boatloads of money. Given any historical boom or crash, it's pretty easy to find a trader that called it. The problem is that traders are always betting their beliefs, and they are often wrong. After Paulson's big bet against housing, he made several bad bets against Treasuries. Thus, it's harder for the media to find a trader that doesn't let them down pretty quickly. Even someone with a great trading record will make a lousy oracle.<br /><br />I think Shiller did better on housing. I plan to look into that next week. I guess I would say, it's pretty easy to find someone with one good bubble prediction, but surprisingly hard to find someone with two. Then at some point we switch to the overall record and anoint the Warren Buffets, Peter Lynches, and George Soroses of the world.Charlie Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02079017903923824877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-279146381231845671.post-40949498308772315582014-02-19T22:11:08.581-08:002014-02-19T22:11:08.581-08:00Are there any examples of a real honest-to-god bub...Are there any examples of a real honest-to-god bubble prediction that holds up? I mean, even if EMH is right surely someone would have once luckily bet on the price of widgets falling right before they fell.<br /><br />I ask because it seems like almost every famous bubble predictor, once people really dig into his record, didn't. At least, not with the sort of specificity that would impress. Is Taleb legit?Robert H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09454933755396275755noreply@blogger.com